咖啡豆漲價的心得

     Global coffee prices have soared to their highest in nearly 50 years due to poor weather in Brazil and Vietnam, forcing roasters such as Nestle to raise prices and consumers to hunt for cheaper brews amid the cost of living crisis. Production problems linked to bad weather in Brazil and Vietnam have seen global supplies lagging demand for three years. That has left stocks depleted and driven benchmark ICE exchange prices to a peak of US$3.36 per lb. 

     Last time coffee traded that high was in 1977 when snow destroyed swathes of Brazil's plantations. However, the shock to consumers was much bigger back then. If adjusted for inflation, US$3.36 per lb in 1977 would be equivalent to US$17.68 today. 

     Brazil, which produces nearly half the world's arabica, high-end beans used primarily in roast and ground blends, experienced one of its worst droughts on record this year. Although rains finally arrived in October, soil moisture remains low and experts say the trees are producing too many leaves and too few of the flowers that turn into cherries. Consultancy StoneX sees Brazil's arabica output falling 10.5 percent to 40 million bags next year, offset somewhat by higher robusta output, thus cutting the country's overall crop by 0.5 percent. 

    In Vietnam, which produces some 40 percent of the robusta beans typically used to make instant coffee, a severe drought earlier this year was followed by excess rains since October. In Vietnam, the crop could shrink up to 10 percent in the year by the end of September next year, adding to the global robusta shortage. 

   Surging coffee prices are a problem for roasters. The boss of Nestle, the world's biggest coffee firm, was ousted earlier this year after the board grew unhappy about weak sales and a loss of market share due to price rises, which prompted consumers to switch to cheaper brands. Roasters tend to buy coffee many months in advance, which means consumers will likely see the price spike in 6 to 12 months. 

    Consumers who drink out will feel less of a pinch of today's rising prices. Roasters like Starbucks that sell mostly to cafés should fare better as the global coffee price accounts for only about 1.4 percent of the total price of a typical US$5 cup of coffee in a café.

心得：整篇大意從漲價、高價、巴西的混合arabica咖啡以及越南的即溶robusta咖啡產量受到影響、受影響是大型企業董事長下台、但賣給外出消費者的咖啡館不太受影響，作總結。換算現在通貨膨脹的調整的話，漲最多的可能使得當時的咖啡價格在某年增加過去的5倍。一杯咖啡 5 美元，咖啡豆成本真的不到 2 塊錢（約 1.4%）？一杯咖啡其實是在賣「咖啡體驗、裝潢、品牌與服務、租金、店員薪資、牛奶/糖」，豆子成本只是小小一部分。

所以有些事情不能只看現在，以為漲到3美元沒什麼，其實以通貨膨脹來看漲17美元；有些事情不能只看表面，以為付出價格5美元的咖啡是在咖啡豆，其實你付的是背面其餘成本的錢。以為過去戒色付出的心血看似很少，子曰：「少之時，血氣未定，戒之在色。」但以後老年的價值來看，其實付出的心血很多。可能覺得排精沒什麼，多吃點蛋白質就回來，但實際上古人說ㄧ滴精ㄧ滴血，能夠懷出ㄧ個生命的能量是很巨大到難以想像。覺得戒色成功者沒什麼，但背後有太多功課，必須要有定課、生活質量要好、孝順父母、不發脾氣等等之類，才有可能戒的成功。